World: Barley trade forecast increased to 25.688 mln tonnes in USDA’s July report

The forecast for the global barley trade in 2020/21 is slightly up in USDA’s July report, at 25.688 mln tonnes vs. 25.288 mln in the June forecast and 25.629 mln tonnes in 2019/20.

Canada barley export forecast is up 400 thousand tonnes– at 2.4 mln tonnes due to larger crop than expected.

Morocco’s import forecast for 2020/21 is increased by 300 thousand tonnes to 1.5 mln.

In 2019/20, EU is expected to export 200 thousand tonnes more (7.2 mln tonnes in total, thanks to increased shipments to Morocco and China), and Canada’s barley exports forecast, too, is up 200 thousand tonnes to 2.2 mln tonnes. Argentina’s barley export forecast is down 200 thousand tonnes to 2.4 mln on continued low shipments.

The 2020/21 world barley production forecast is reduced this month to 154.693 mln tonnes from 155.259 mln tonnes in the June report and 156.253 mln tonnes in 2019/20. Canada’s output forecast is up at 10.1 mln tonnes vs. 9.7 mln last month and the EU’s is down at 63.55 mln tonnes vs. 64.1 mln in June.

Total barley consumption is forecast at 154.062 mln tonnes this month (154.114 mln tonnes in the June report, 153.232 mln in 2019/20), while ending stocks are seen at 21.455 mln tonnes (22.92 mln tonnes and 20.824 mln tonnes, respectively).

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